Bitcoin and gold, supply and demand: a journey through earth,space, technology, and geopolitics
For generations, gold has been the landmark of stability: tangible, physical, rarely questioned. The quintessential safe haven asset. More recently, Bitcoin has claimed the spotlight as “digital gold,” offering investors programmed scarcity and independence from traditional financial architecture.
But upon closer inspection, the picture is much more complex than it appears, and at the same time, paradoxically, simpler, too: while the factors (political, technological, social, cultural) that influence or could potentially influence the performance and capitalisation of these two assets are many and varied, the value of Bitcoin, like that of gold, is predominantly dominated by one of the most heartfelt, recited, and notorious formulas of modern economics: the law of supply and demand.
Starting from this simple perspective, this article will explore it in practical terms, taking the reader's gaze beyond the most commonly explored horizons: we will examine how certain technologies can actually increase the supply of gold (and why this matters), how Bitcoin fits into the geopolitical game (with particular attention to the case of Iran) and, finally, why certain narratives of ‘missing funds’ fuel highly speculative hypotheses that seem to belong more to a X-Files episode than actual reality.
In short, starting from a pillar of modern economic theory, we will explore some possible scenarios that could stimulate evolutions in the two variables in this relationship.
It should be noted that the author does not intend to provide financial advice in any way with this article, but simply to explore some scenarios on a purely theoretical level.
Gold (and Bitcoin) are not immune to market laws
It is easy to fall into the narrative that presents gold as the perfect safe haven asset and Bitcoin as digital gold. Although this simplification is useful for conversation and educational purposes, two aspects will not elude a more careful observer: while the scarcity of Bitcoin is programmed and truly immutable (it is not possible to mine more than 21 million Bitcoins), that of gold is much more debatable. In fact, as a natural resource, its scarcity or finiteness is orders of magnitude less than that of Bitcoin; in other words, Bitcoin is much scarcer than gold.
On the other hand, what both asset classes have in common is that they respond and can be tracked through the lens of simple economic forces and standard indicators.
First and foremost, price and market capitalisation: at the time of writing, 1 kilo (≈2 pounds) of gold costs just over one bitcoin ($120,000 vs. $112,000), while in terms of capitalisation, gold outperforms bitcoin with a capitalisation of $18.5 trillion compared to $2.2 trillion for bitcoin.
Secondly, these assets follow supply and demand. Technological developments, changes in production costs, or sudden discoveries can impact the price dramatically. For gold, this means that new methods of exploration, recovery, or alternative sources can erode the perception of scarcity. For Bitcoin, the costs/benefits of “production” — i.e., mining — depend primarily on the price of energy, hardware efficiency, and rewards for miners.
Lastly, while gold has proven to be quite docile in terms of volatility, Bitcoin has definitely not. Data from Bloomberg and CoinMetrics show that, in the three-year period 2021-2024, Bitcoin's 30-day annualized volatility averaged between 55% and 80%, with peaks above 100% during periods of high speculation or broader market volatility (e.g., the collapse of FTX in 2022). Gold, in the same period, fluctuated within a much narrower range: its annualized volatility rarely exceeded 15-18%, often remaining below 12%.
This difference is not just statistical: it means that, for the same amount of capital invested, a portfolio exposed to Bitcoin can experience price movements that are on average four to five times greater than one exposed to gold.
Bitcoin as a strategic reserve for companies
A leading factor driving demand for Bitcoin is its increasing use as a strategic reserve by publicly traded companies. The best-known case is MicroStrategy, which held over 200,000 BTC at the end of 2024 (source: SEC filing), de facto transforming the underlying stock into a sort of unofficial Bitcoin ETF. Even Tesla, despite some sales, retains part of its original 2021 purchase, while Block (formerly Square) continues to accumulate and integrate Bitcoin into its financial services. Smaller companies and global family offices are following suit, attracted by a scarce asset that is resistant to currency devaluation and easily transferable, while leading financial institutions have begun to deploy capital either directly or through recently approved ETFs. The bitcoin trend, once confined to a few visionaries, is rapidly establishing itself as a long-term strategy for diversifying liquidity and protecting against inflation, both for retail and institutional investors.
Gold: demand forecasts and the role of central banks
While corporate interest in Bitcoin is growing, global financial institutions are confirming the central role of gold. Recent reports by JP Morgan and the World Bank (2024) estimate a steady increase in demand for gold in the coming years, driven mainly by purchases by central banks, which continue to strengthen their reserves to protect themselves from geopolitical tensions and currency risks.
Gold also remains essential for technological sectors such as microelectronics, photonics, and medical devices: industrial uses that are less decisive in terms of price, but which consolidate its function as a strategic metal.
This combination of institutional and industrial factors could fuel long-term demand, but are there factors that could also increase the supply of this precious metal?
Where gold supply can increase: from LiDAR to bacteria and space mining
Technologies that can change the gold supply are not science fiction. LiDAR is a great example of this: high-resolution laser mapping—including drone-based mapping—is slowly becoming an everyday tool for geologists. With ultra-high-resolution 3D mapping, LiDAR can penetrate vegetation cover and detects geological anomalies invisible to traditional methods, paving the way for discoveries of previously unreachable deposits, and possibly even groundbreaking archeological findings.
Coupled with hyperspectral data and machine learning algorithms, it reduces exploration risk: more valid targets, less unnecessary drilling. Simply put, LiDAR does not “find gold chemically,” but it makes the conversion of geological signals into excavations much more efficient. To use a business metaphor, LiDAR facilitates the generation and classification of leads.
Alongside remote sensing, biotechnology offers an equally disruptive perspective. This is where research on Delftia acidovorans and the production of gold nanoparticles come into play. The paper by Johnston et al. (2013, Nature Chemical Biology) showed that this bacterium produces delftibactin, a metabolite that allows the microorganism to transform soluble and toxic gold ions into metal nanoparticles—a protective mechanism that also becomes a potential production mechanism. Subsequent studies, such as that by Takeuchi et al. (2025) and several pilot projects, not only provide a greater bio-genetic understanding of this bacterium, but also open up possible industrial and commercial applications for this biological mechanism.
This does not mean that we will have biodegradable mines on an industrial scale by 2026, but it does indicate plausible technological avenues for increasing the efficiency of recovery and the sustainability of these supply chains, with a potential impact on the price dynamics of the underlying asset.
16 Psyche: what if space mining were not so far away?
This is where the debate on the limits of gold supply takes on more science fiction-like overtones. 16 Psyche is an asteroid in the Main Asteroid Belt, a region of the Solar System between the orbits of Mars and Jupiter—large, metallic according to hypotheses, and the subject of intense scientific attention. But can this asteroid really become a literal gold mine?
To understand the scale, let's try to reason by orders of magnitude: a plausible metallic mass of Psyche can be estimated to be in the order of 10¹⁸ kg (with a wide margin of uncertainty). The gold content measured in meteorites and metal phases is typically expressed in parts per million (ppm): empirical values range from fractions of ppm to a few ppm. If we assume an average of 1 ppm of gold in 10¹⁸ kg, the result would be 10¹² kg of gold (1 billion tons). Consider that currently, the weight of all gold mined on the entire planet Earth amounts to approximately 197,000 tons.
What would be the hypothetical impact on the price of gold if only 1% of the gold plausibly present on Psyche 16 were extracted? How would the market react to a supply that goes from 197,000 tons to more than 10 million tons?
Fortunately for gold supporters, there are many economic, technological, and logistical challenges involved in setting up a space mine: precise robotic prospecting (gamma spectra, neutrons, radar, and sampling), reaching and anchoring in microgravity (nets, harpoons, restraint systems), collection (robotic chiseling, solar heating, low-reaction systems), in-situ separation and refining (centrifugal spinning, magnetic/electrostatic separation), and finally transport or use in orbit. The energy factor dominates costs: without efficient propulsion and infrastructure for in-space propellant production, the massive return of material to Earth remains prohibitive.
Prohibitive unless there are major breakthroughs in energy production, alternative propulsion systems, advanced robotics, and space logistics.
Quite unlikely to happen soon, some will say. What about 5 years from now? Or 10? Or 20?
In fact, companies and projects working on these dimensions are currently active and in certain cases even publicly-traded.
Bitcoin, Iran, and the strategic role of energy
On the crypto front, energy costs are the key variable. Countries with low-cost electricity (due to subsidies or abundant hydrocarbon deposits) can gain competitive advantages in mining. Iran has been repeatedly cited in reports and analyses for its significant role in global hashrate during periods of cheap energy, sparking international concerns about the use of cryptocurrencies to circumvent sanctions or finance unconventional state activities. Regulatory authorities are actively monitoring these flows, and the issue has made its way onto policy agendas.
Nevertheless, even major breakthroughs in energy production do not affect the finiteness of bitcoins (the limit of 21 million remains), but can cause, together with international policy developments and geopolitical dynamics, volatility in crypto markets and beyond.
From 21 million Bitcoins to the “21 trillion” of the US budget: a provocative parallel
The number is striking: 21 million is the maximum number of bitcoins that can be mined; 21 trillion dollars is the figure that some analysts, including Professor Mark Skidmore of Michigan State University, have identified as “adjustments” not fully justified in US federal budgets between 1998 and 2015. Skidmore has documented accounting records classified as “unsupported,” meaning they lack complete supporting documentation.
There is no evidence that those 21 trillion dollars represent money that has actually “disappeared”: these are accounting discrepancies that could reflect errors, incomplete reconciliations, or opaque internal procedures. Yet the colossal figure and the lack of public explanations fuel more daring hypotheses. Some observers speak of funds being channeled into Special Access Programs—top-secret military and technological projects—or financial mechanisms designed to conceal transfers of value.
This is where the world of crypto comes into play. Bitcoin, due to its pseudonymous nature and the irreversibility of transactions, is sometimes cited as a potential tool for moving capital off the traditional radar.
Although there is no confirmation that the two figures—21 million bitcoins and 21 trillion adjustments—are actually linked beyond the number 21 (for fans of Douglas Adams, 21+21=42), this curious parallelism, if nothing else, stimulates reflection: sometimes it is precisely in the space between official data and unofficial data, the potential of new technologies, and actors who have skills and tools for certain operations that the truest, most relevant, and ground-breaking stories of our times may hide.
Conclusion: scenarios beyond the mainstream
This journey through gold, Bitcoin, emerging technologies, and geopolitical hypotheses brings us back to where we started: the law of supply and demand. From LiDAR mapping to bacterial cultures that “precipitate” gold, and the hypothetical space mines on Psyche, we have seen that the gold supply could expand in ways that are difficult to time and quantify today but technically conceivable. At the same time, the Bitcoin ecosystem, although mathematically limited to 21 million units, remains exposed to equally concrete variables: energy costs, regulations, high volatility, corporate uses as a store of value, or state uses in geopolitical scenarios such as Iran.
We then touched on the narratives about the “21 trillion” dollars in US balance sheets, with real data and university studies to support them, but without forgetting that this more likely opaque accounting rather than “missing” funds. The hypothesis that cryptocurrencies or similar technologies could facilitate confidential transfers remains, to date, a speculative exercise.
The goal is not to provide price forecasts or investment advice, but rather to outline little-explored horizons where science, technology, finance, and geopolitics intersect. Some of the hypotheses discussed—from space mining to the use of Bitcoin in secret programs—are based on real studies and data, but remain hypothetical scenarios, far from being factual certainties.
In an era in which markets react to unexpected innovations and sudden political decisions, it is worth imagining what rarely enters the media or political debate, with a perspective that goes beyond clickbait journalism and often compartmentalised academia, and instead is oriented toward time horizons of decades, laying the groundwork for imagining, co-designing, and defending the more distant future, but still no less ours.
Main sources and readings
Johnston, C. et al., 2013. Delftia acidovorans and delftibactin: biomineralization of gold. Nature Chemical Biology.
Funari, P. et al., 2019. Kinetics and biofilm studies on gold biomineralization in Delftia acidovorans. (journal).
Riley, et al., 2020. Genetic diversity of Delftia and gene associations with gold precipitation. (journal).
Takeuchi, et al., 2025. Structure of delftibactin A. (journal).
McMaster University, 2024. Mechanism of gold nanoparticle formation by Delftia acidovorans and applications in wastewater remediation. (press release / study).
NASA — Psyche mission overview and instrument descriptions.
Viikinkoski, et al., 2018. Density and composition estimates for 16 Psyche. (astronomy & astrophysics).
USGS — Robert S. Jones (1968). Gold in Meteorites and in the Earth’s Crust (data on Au concentrations in meteorites).
NIAC / NASA white papers and NASA/industry reports on ISRU and robotic asteroid prospecting.
Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance & Chainalysis — analyses on global Bitcoin hashrate, mining economics and rischi di evasione sanzioni.
Mark Skidmore et al., Michigan State University — analysis on “unsupported adjustments” e discussione pubblica sul tema “21 trillion”.
Fabio Caratto
